Nickel
A corrosion-resistant metal essential to stainless steel and to high-energy-density battery cathodes.
Why it matters
Class 1 nickel enables long-range EVs, while stainless demand ties nickel to global industrial activity.
Supply and sustainability
- Applications
- Stainless steel, NMC and NCA battery cathodes, Superalloys for aerospace, Plating and alloys
- Supply risk
- Low near term. Indonesian laterite expansion created a durable surplus that has displaced higher-cost producers.
- Geopolitics
- Indonesia now supplies over half of global mined nickel, with heavy Chinese investment in its processing capacity.
- Substitutes
- LFP cathodes displace nickel in cost-sensitive EV segments; manganese-rich chemistries are advancing.
- Recycling
- Moderate to high in stainless scrap loops; battery nickel recycling is early.
- Sustainability
- Indonesian HPAL and NPI production is coal-powered and carbon intensive; deforestation and tailings disposal are contested.
- Forecast
- Prices likely rangebound until Indonesian supply discipline emerges; quality-tiered pricing is developing.
- Key countries
- 5 tracked producer and processing roles
Earthern Strategic Score 72
Version v0.1
- Demand Outlook
- 71 (weight 1.2) — Projected demand growth relative to the broader mineral economy over the next decade.
- Supply Risk
- 73 (weight 1.2) — Likelihood of supply falling short of demand, accounting for project pipeline and lead times.
- Geographic Concentration
- 73 (weight 1) — How concentrated mining and processing are across countries and companies.
- Geopolitical Risk
- 72 (weight 1) — Exposure to export controls, sanctions and jurisdictional instability.
- Technology Importance
- 75 (weight 1.1) — How central the mineral is to strategically important technologies.
- Strategic Importance
- 78 (weight 1) — Recognition in national critical mineral lists and defence supply chains.
- Substitutability
- 71 (weight 0.8) — How readily the mineral can be replaced without material performance loss. Higher is harder to substitute.
- Recycling Potential
- 63 (weight 0.7) — Ability of secondary supply to relieve primary demand. Higher means less relief available.
Mines, projects and refineries
Norilsk Complex
A vast Arctic nickel-copper-palladium complex and the largest palladium source globally.
Sorowako
A long-established nickel laterite mining and smelting operation.
Voiseys Bay
A high-grade nickel-copper-cobalt sulphide operation transitioning underground.
Weda Bay
One of the largest nickel operations globally, anchoring an integrated industrial park.
Related intelligence
Related minerals
Lithium
The lightest metal and the irreplaceable charge carrier in current lithium-ion battery chemistries.
Graphite
Crystalline carbon and the dominant anode material in every commercial lithium-ion cell.
Cobalt
A cathode stabiliser that improves battery energy density and cycle life, produced mostly as a copper by-product.
Manganese
An essential steel additive and a growing battery cathode component.