Nickel
A corrosion-resistant metal essential to stainless steel and to high-energy-density battery cathodes.
Why it matters
Class 1 nickel enables long-range EVs, while stainless demand ties nickel to global industrial activity.
Supply and sustainability
- Applications
- Stainless steel, NMC and NCA battery cathodes, Superalloys for aerospace, Plating and alloys
- Supply risk
- Low near term. Indonesian laterite expansion created a durable surplus that has displaced higher-cost producers.
- Geopolitics
- Indonesia now supplies over half of global mined nickel, with heavy Chinese investment in its processing capacity.
- Substitutes
- LFP cathodes displace nickel in cost-sensitive EV segments; manganese-rich chemistries are advancing.
- Recycling
- Moderate to high in stainless scrap loops; battery nickel recycling is early.
- Sustainability
- Indonesian HPAL and NPI production is coal-powered and carbon intensive; deforestation and tailings disposal are contested.
- Forecast
- Prices likely rangebound until Indonesian supply discipline emerges; quality-tiered pricing is developing.
- Key countries
- 5 tracked producer and processing roles
Earthern Strategic Score 72
Version v0.1
- Demand Outlook
- 71 (weight 1.2) — Projected demand growth relative to the broader mineral economy over the next decade.
- Supply Risk
- 73 (weight 1.2) — Likelihood of supply falling short of demand, accounting for project pipeline and lead times.
- Geographic Concentration
- 73 (weight 1) — How concentrated mining and processing are across countries and companies.
- Geopolitical Risk
- 72 (weight 1) — Exposure to export controls, sanctions and jurisdictional instability.
- Technology Importance
- 75 (weight 1.1) — How central the mineral is to strategically important technologies.
- Strategic Importance
- 78 (weight 1) — Recognition in national critical mineral lists and defence supply chains.
- Substitutability
- 71 (weight 0.8) — How readily the mineral can be replaced without material performance loss. Higher is harder to substitute.
- Recycling Potential
- 63 (weight 0.7) — Ability of secondary supply to relieve primary demand. Higher means less relief available.
Mines, projects and refineries
Norilsk Complex
A vast Arctic nickel-copper-palladium complex and the largest palladium source globally.
mine · IndonesiaSorowako
A long-established nickel laterite mining and smelting operation.
mine · CanadaVoiseys Bay
A high-grade nickel-copper-cobalt sulphide operation transitioning underground.
mine · IndonesiaWeda Bay
One of the largest nickel operations globally, anchoring an integrated industrial park.
Related intelligence
Related minerals
Lithium
The lightest metal and the irreplaceable charge carrier in current lithium-ion battery chemistries.
Battery MineralsGraphite
Crystalline carbon and the dominant anode material in every commercial lithium-ion cell.
Battery MineralsCobalt
A cathode stabiliser that improves battery energy density and cycle life, produced mostly as a copper by-product.
Battery MineralsManganese
An essential steel additive and a growing battery cathode component.