Uranium
The fuel of nuclear fission and the densest practical energy source available to civilisation.
Why it matters
Nuclear is re-emerging as firm, low-carbon baseload — including for data centre power — after a decade of underinvestment in mine supply.
Supply and sustainability
- Applications
- Nuclear reactor fuel, Small modular reactors, Medical isotopes, Naval propulsion
- Supply risk
- High. Primary mine supply has run below reactor requirements for years, with the gap filled by shrinking secondary inventories.
- Geopolitics
- Kazakhstan supplies roughly 40% of mined uranium; enrichment capacity is concentrated in Russia, Europe and a growing US footprint.
- Substitutes
- No direct substitute for fission fuel; thorium cycles remain pre-commercial.
- Recycling
- Limited. Reprocessing and MOX fuel recover a share of fissile material in some jurisdictions.
- Sustainability
- Low operational carbon intensity; in-situ recovery limits surface disturbance, while legacy mining sites remain a reclamation issue.
- Forecast
- Demand supported by life extensions, new builds and SMRs; supply response requires sustained higher prices.
- Key countries
- 5 tracked producer and processing roles
Earthern Strategic Score 88
Version v0.1
- Demand Outlook
- 89 (weight 1.2) — Projected demand growth relative to the broader mineral economy over the next decade.
- Supply Risk
- 82 (weight 1.2) — Likelihood of supply falling short of demand, accounting for project pipeline and lead times.
- Geographic Concentration
- 90 (weight 1) — How concentrated mining and processing are across countries and companies.
- Geopolitical Risk
- 94 (weight 1) — Exposure to export controls, sanctions and jurisdictional instability.
- Technology Importance
- 91 (weight 1.1) — How central the mineral is to strategically important technologies.
- Strategic Importance
- 93 (weight 1) — Recognition in national critical mineral lists and defence supply chains.
- Substitutability
- 78 (weight 0.8) — How readily the mineral can be replaced without material performance loss. Higher is harder to substitute.
- Recycling Potential
- 77 (weight 0.7) — Ability of secondary supply to relieve primary demand. Higher means less relief available.
Mines, projects and refineries
Arrow
A very large, high-grade undeveloped uranium deposit in the Athabasca Basin.
mine · CanadaCigar Lake
A high-grade uranium mine using jet boring in ground-frozen conditions.
mine · KazakhstanInkai
A very large in-situ recovery uranium operation in southern Kazakhstan.
mine · CanadaMcArthur River
The largest high-grade uranium mine in the world, in the Athabasca Basin.
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