Strategic & Critical Minerals

Germanium

A metalloid recovered from zinc residues and coal fly ash, critical to infrared optics and fibre.

GeStrategic score 87US Critical MineralEU Critical Raw Material

Price

$2,350 / USD/kg

Price change

22.4%

Producing assets

Technologies

Context

Why it matters

Germanium sits at the intersection of defence optics, satellite solar and the fibre backbone of the internet.

Profile

Applications: Infrared optics and night vision, Fibre optic cable, Space solar cells, Polymerisation catalysts, SiGe chips
Supply risk: Very high. Small market, by-product supply and active export controls.
Geopolitics: China dominates refined output; export licensing has repeatedly tightened availability outside China.
Substitutes: Limited; alternatives degrade performance in infrared and fibre applications.
Recycling: Significant in optics manufacturing, where scrap recovery rates are high.
Sustainability: By-product recovery avoids dedicated mining impacts.
Forecast: Structurally tight with defence and satellite demand rising.
Key countries: 3 tracked producer and processing roles

Methodology

Version v0.1

Demand Outlook: 88 (weight 1.2) — Projected demand growth relative to the broader mineral economy over the next decade.
Supply Risk: 80 (weight 1.2) — Likelihood of supply falling short of demand, accounting for project pipeline and lead times.
Geographic Concentration: 91 (weight 1) — How concentrated mining and processing are across countries and companies.
Geopolitical Risk: 86 (weight 1) — Exposure to export controls, sanctions and jurisdictional instability.
Technology Importance: 92 (weight 1.1) — How central the mineral is to strategically important technologies.
Strategic Importance: 95 (weight 1) — Recognition in national critical mineral lists and defence supply chains.
Substitutability: 86 (weight 0.8) — How readily the mineral can be replaced without material performance loss. Higher is harder to substitute.
Recycling Potential: 78 (weight 0.7) — Ability of secondary supply to relieve primary demand. Higher means less relief available.