Gallium
A soft metal recovered as a by-product of aluminium refining, essential to compound semiconductors.
Why it matters
Gallium nitride and gallium arsenide underpin power electronics, radar and high-frequency communications for AI infrastructure.
Supply and sustainability
- Applications
- GaN power semiconductors, RF and radar systems, LEDs, Data centre power conversion, Solar cells
- Supply risk
- Very high. Production is a by-product with almost no price-elastic supply response.
- Geopolitics
- China produces the large majority of primary gallium and has imposed export licensing controls.
- Substitutes
- Silicon and silicon carbide substitute in some power applications with performance trade-offs.
- Recycling
- Meaningful within semiconductor fabrication scrap loops.
- Sustainability
- By-product recovery has a low incremental footprint; the underlying alumina refining is energy intensive.
- Forecast
- Demand rises with GaN adoption in data centre power supplies and electrification.
- Key countries
- 2 tracked producer and processing roles
Earthern Strategic Score 89
Version v0.1
- Demand Outlook
- 96 (weight 1.2) — Projected demand growth relative to the broader mineral economy over the next decade.
- Supply Risk
- 90 (weight 1.2) — Likelihood of supply falling short of demand, accounting for project pipeline and lead times.
- Geographic Concentration
- 90 (weight 1) — How concentrated mining and processing are across countries and companies.
- Geopolitical Risk
- 91 (weight 1) — Exposure to export controls, sanctions and jurisdictional instability.
- Technology Importance
- 98 (weight 1.1) — How central the mineral is to strategically important technologies.
- Strategic Importance
- 96 (weight 1) — Recognition in national critical mineral lists and defence supply chains.
- Substitutability
- 84 (weight 0.8) — How readily the mineral can be replaced without material performance loss. Higher is harder to substitute.
- Recycling Potential
- 75 (weight 0.7) — Ability of secondary supply to relieve primary demand. Higher means less relief available.
Mines, projects and refineries
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