Industrial Minerals

Potash

Potassium salts that supply one of the three primary nutrients in agricultural fertiliser.

KStrategic score 64EU Critical Raw Material (2023 review)

Price

$305 / USD/t

Price change

-4.5%

Producing assets

Technologies

Context

Why it matters

Potash is food security expressed as a mineral. Its supply concentration is a geopolitical variable.

Profile

Applications: Fertiliser production, Industrial chemicals, Food processing, Water treatment
Supply risk: Moderate. Ample reserves, but supply is concentrated in a few jurisdictions.
Geopolitics: Canada, Russia and Belarus dominate exports; sanctions have reshaped trade flows significantly.
Substitutes: No substitute for potassium as a plant nutrient.
Recycling: Not applicable in the conventional sense; nutrient efficiency is the analogue.
Sustainability: Solution mining and tailings salt management are the primary environmental questions.
Forecast: Demand grows with global food demand; pricing is cyclical.
Key countries: 3 tracked producer and processing roles

Methodology

Version v0.1

Demand Outlook: 69 (weight 1.2) — Projected demand growth relative to the broader mineral economy over the next decade.
Supply Risk: 61 (weight 1.2) — Likelihood of supply falling short of demand, accounting for project pipeline and lead times.
Geographic Concentration: 69 (weight 1) — How concentrated mining and processing are across countries and companies.
Geopolitical Risk: 63 (weight 1) — Exposure to export controls, sanctions and jurisdictional instability.
Technology Importance: 65 (weight 1.1) — How central the mineral is to strategically important technologies.
Strategic Importance: 71 (weight 1) — Recognition in national critical mineral lists and defence supply chains.
Substitutability: 57 (weight 0.8) — How readily the mineral can be replaced without material performance loss. Higher is harder to substitute.
Recycling Potential: 55 (weight 0.7) — Ability of secondary supply to relieve primary demand. Higher means less relief available.